AI Set to Transform Global Trade, WTO Report Finds

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released its 2025 World Trade Report, revealing that artificial intelligence (AI) could significantly enhance global trade and economic growth by 2040. The report forecasts that AI could increase the value of global trade in goods and services by approximately 34–37% and boost global GDP by 12–13% within the same timeframe.

Key Drivers of AI’s Impact on Trade

The projected growth is attributed to several factors:

• Reduced Trade Costs: AI can streamline logistics, compliance, and communication processes, lowering transaction costs.
• Enhanced Productivity: Automation and AI-driven efficiencies can increase output across various sectors.
• Improved Market Access: AI-powered translation tools enable small producers in low-income countries to access global markets more effectively.

Potential Risks and Inequalities

Despite the optimistic projections, the WTO warns that the benefits of AI may not be evenly distributed. Without inclusive policies, AI could exacerbate existing economic disparities. The report highlights that income growth could be as low as 8% in poorer economies, compared to 14% in high-income countries. Bridging the digital infrastructure gap is crucial to ensuring that all nations can benefit from AI advancements.

Recommendations for Inclusive Growth

To harness AI’s full potential and promote equitable growth, the WTO emphasizes the need for:

• Investment in Digital Infrastructure: Developing robust digital networks in low-income countries.
• Education and Retraining Programs: Equipping the workforce with skills necessary for the AI-driven economy.
• Updated Trade Policies: Revising trade rules to accommodate the evolving technological landscape.
• Lower Tariffs on AI-Critical Materials: Reducing trade barriers on essential components like semiconductors.

The WTO’s report underscores AI’s transformative potential in reshaping global trade and economic dynamics. However, it also cautions that without deliberate and inclusive policy interventions, the benefits may be unevenly distributed, potentially widening existing inequalities. Proactive measures are essential to ensure that AI contributes to equitable global growth.